By: Joe Branch
April 30, 2021

What’s better than two races in two weeks? How about two races in two nights!?!?  The NTT Indycar Series hit the high speed oval of Texas Motor Speedway this weekend for the Genesys 300 and the XPEL 375. 

Texas was once a very unpredictable, anything can happen, type of race.  However, a few years back, track officials rebanked and repaved turns 1 and 2. This created a one lane, track position track in which it is all but impossible to pass for position.  The race will be won and lost during pit sequences and tire wear.  

This weekend is a two day show with the first and only practice starting at 12:30 PM ET on Saturday.  Qualifying begins at 4 and then the race itself goes green at 7 PM.  This means you will want to get your bets in for the first race before practice on Saturday. 

The betting sites often pull down the odds as the first practice begins, with the short turn around in between qualifying and the race, it’s possible that there won’t be another chance to bet or the window might be small.  

Qualifying for the two races this weekend will take place in one session.  Drivers’ first lap will qualify them for race one and their second lap will qualify for race two.  We will preview race one below. 

When the oddsmakers post the odds for the 2nd race, it will be based off of the end result of race one.  When looking for value look for the driver that had a really fast car but maybe had some bad luck in race one.

The Favorites

Six time series champion and four time Texas winner Scott Dixon comes into Texas as the favorite at +400 (4 to 1).  Dixon is also the defending winner of this race.  Here is the wild card, Chip Ganassi Racing didn’t test at Texas when 17 other drivers did at the end of March. Will that put them behind the eight ball when they only have one practice on Saturday?

The Penske duo of Will Power and Josef Newgarden come in at +500 (5 to 1).  Both are former winners here. 

Newgarden finished 3rd last year after qualifying on the pole.  Power struggled during the race and finished 13th.  Patricio O’Ward also comes in +850 (8.5 to 1).  Pato was fastest in the March test.

Value

Colton Herta shows some good value at +1200 (12 to 1).  Coming off of last week’s win Colton is 4th in points which means he will be one of the last to go out in qualifying, this is a huge advantage.  Herta finished 7th last year after starting 14th and has proved to be one of the few that could get passes done in the past few years at Texas.  

Another potential value pick is Alex Palou +2000 (20 to 1.)  Chip Ganassi was really strong at Texas last year and that’s probably why they decided to skip the March test. 

If the pace is still there, the 10 car was very quick last year before Rosenqvist made contact with the safer-barrier.  Palou will also have the advantage of going out last in qualifying as the points leader.

Long Shots

At first glance, I didn’t think this race was a race for long shots, and then the odds posted and Tony Kanaan is listed at +4000 (40 to 1) in a Ganassi Car.  Ed Carpenter who is a former winner at Texas and finished 4th last year is +4500 (45 to 1.)

Other options if you like the longshots include Jack Harvey and Conor Daly (with Carlin) both at +5000 (50 to 1).  

My Picks

Favorite: Scott Dixon 4 to 1

Value: Colton Herta 12 to 1 and Alex Palou 20 to 1

Long Shots: Tony Kanaan 40 to 1 and Ed Carpenter 45 to 1

Header Image By Joe Skibinski/INDYCAR